Yesterday I did several individual responses. Today I took my time and merged then into one amalgamated response.
Now...we can argue about whether or not GA and TN have broken any of the landmarks (not an argument I'd care to participate in) and therefore whether CA and DC have grounds for this decision, but we need to recognize this for what it is.
That is exactly what it is according to the letter of edict from one of my 3 Grand Masters. A violation of the landmark against introducing sectarian religion into lodge. The prohibition against homosexuality appears in exactly one religious lineage and is thus sectarian. Do not be confused by whether it's from your religious lineage or someone else's religious lineage. That doesn't matter when judging a matter sectarian.
TN is regular. California, DC and Belgium simply pretend they aren't.
Fun user handle by the way.
So you say and if you're a member in either TN or GA of course that will be your stance. Two of my 3 GMs currently hold TN and GA to be regular. One does not.
In return you simply pretend that a religious rule that comes from exactly one religious lineage does not count as sectarian and thus does not violate a landmark.
As long as UGLE says TN is regular, who cares what California says, except perhaps DC and Belguim, so far.
On many recognition matters UGLE leads the way. On other matters they have equal standing with every other jurisdiction. On this the UGLE is just one jurisdiction among many.
You want to change their minds? Visit their lodge and confront them. Over and over again. Tell them this isn't YOUR vision of freemasonry. Convince them. If that's too difficult, wait them out.
Progression and tolerance take time, especially where old prejudices die hard. Everyone thinks they can hold their breath and stomp their feet, and magically the world will change. You need to win their hearts and minds. That takes time, patience and persuasion. That's how you beat hatred.
When CT first granted PHA recognition at least one southern US jurisdiction pulled recognition over it. Nearly everyone laughed at them for pulling recognition. Time did in fact wound that heal and heal that wound. Who now remembers CT with anything but admiration for their progress? No one I care to emulate.
Now GA and TN have stepped forward to bring sectarian rule. Time will wound that heal and heal that wound, be clear about that. If they don't relent soon it will only be a matter how some number of Masonic funerals as they watch the flow of new candidates reduce. Who later will remember this as example different from the religious bigotry that was rejected in FL three years ago? No one I care to emulate.
If GLs are no longer recognized as regular then there is scope for new regular GLs to be established.
True in theory, unlikely in practice. A better projection is this will run out in a similar manner as PHA recognition. Very slowly.
First of all, those grand lodges only suspended relations presumably by grand master edicts. It would probably have to be voted on at their annual communication or meeting if they wanted to withdraw recognition.
In GA it has already been voted on and approved by their delegates at annual communication. Too late for them.
In TN and CA it is currently by edict/decision that needs to be voted on at annual communication.
The delegates in TN have the chance to vote against being known world wide as homophobes who destroyed the sanctuary aspect of Masonry in their territory. The letter from CA at least makes it clear that if the TN edict is voted down recognition is back the day that vote outcome is released to the world.
The delegates in CA have the chance to vote for or against the CA edict. I am already discussing with my wife the option of going to San Francisco this year.
Secondly, a new grand lodge would need a legitimate charter. Who is going to give them one?
Others have answered this already but I'll repeat - Grand lodges grant charters. They don't receive charters. What makes grand lodges legitimate is *recognition*.
This is an important point - The legitimacy of any one GL is determined by how many other GLs recognize them and by how many that don't.
That's worth repeating - The legitimacy of any one GL is determined by how many other GLs recognize them. When recognition is pulled by some that means the legitimacy has been questioned by some. When recognition is pulled by many that means the legitimacy has been refuted by many.
Others have answered the charter question - When a group of lodges band together to form a new jurisdiction they turn in their old charters to their former jurisdictions and the new jurisdiction writes news ones for them. Becoming a founding lodge in a new jurisdiction is a HUGE leap of faith that the new jurisdiction is legitimate and will thus be recognized immediately.
That is why I don't think any third jurisdiction will be formed. I think every other GL in America will wait for them to come back to the fold, very much like every other GL in America is waiting for the southern states to recognize PHA. Just as no one is pulling recognition over failure to recognize PHA I don't think adjacent states are going to charter lodges in the territory held by homophobic jurisdictions. (We might call them Obama/Clinton Affiliate lodges after leaders who integrated on the topic of gender).
What three GLs are recognized in CA ?
This has a previous answer as well as a current answer.
Back in the 1990s when California voted on PHA recognition they did so in several annual steps. One year they declared PHA to be regular in origin and practice. The next year the GL of Mexico requested permission to charter a lodge in Imperial county near the Mexican border. The GLofCA voted to allow that lodge to be chartered as it set the precedent that when asked they can waive the principle of exclusive territory without dropping territorial sovereignty in general. Then recognition was voted in. For a while GLofCA, MWPHGLofCA+HI and GL of Mexico operated lodges in California. Some time in the 20+ years since then that Mexican lodge joined GLofCA and the overlap ceased.
The current answer was already answered - GL of Iran in Exile. They work to get Masonry allowed in Iran with the goal to move back there and found lodges. I pray for their eventual success.